Middlemen is a closed beta run by one person. These terms are short and plain because the service is small: it shows you information, it takes no money, and it holds almost nothing about you.
Middlemen is a research and information tool for prediction markets. It gathers what is known about a market — the settlement criteria, historical base rates, comparable resolved markets, and independent model estimates — and puts it on one screen.
Middlemen is not an exchange, a broker, a dealer, or an adviser. It does not accept orders, hold funds, execute trades, or take any position. It has no financial relationship with any trading venue.
Nothing on Middlemen is financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and nothing on it is a recommendation to trade.
The fair-value estimates, edges, base rates and comparables are model outputs and historical statistics. They are frequently wrong. They are published so you can examine the reasoning and disagree with it — not so you can act on them.
Middlemen deliberately publishes no arbitrage figure and no buy or sell signal. Any decision you make is yours alone, and you are responsible for it. If you need advice, speak to someone licensed to give it.
While the beta is running, the prices, order books, trading volumes, open interest and the exchanges themselves are generated by us. They are not quoted from any real venue and they do not reflect any real market. Every page says so.
Everything else is real — the market questions, the categories, the settlement criteria, the models, the comparables and the resolved track record. Do not use the generated prices for anything.
Please do not:
Screenshots and quotes for the purpose of giving us feedback, or discussing the product publicly, are welcome and are not what the above is about.
The interface, the models, the written analysis and the way the information is organised are ours. Facts about the world are nobody's. Settlement criteria are restated in our own words rather than reproduced from any venue; where a summary is imperfect, the venue's own published rules govern the outcome, not ours. Always check the source before it matters to you.
The service is provided as is. We do not promise it will be available, correct, current, or free of errors. Data may be stale, incomplete or simply wrong — the pipeline is intentionally paused during the beta, so figures can be considerably out of date. Nothing here should be relied on.
To the fullest extent the law allows, we are not liable for any loss you suffer from using — or being unable to use — Middlemen, including trading losses, lost profits, or decisions taken in reliance on anything shown here. Nothing in these terms limits liability that cannot legally be limited.
If you send feedback, we may act on it and build it into the product without owing you anything for it. Please don't send anything confidential.
These terms may change; the date at the top changes with them. While the beta is small, material changes will be told to beta users directly. Continuing to use the service after a change means you accept it.
These terms are governed by the laws of the Province of Ontario and the federal laws of Canada that apply there, and the courts of Ontario have jurisdiction over any dispute.
Questions about these terms: [email protected]. How your data is handled: the privacy notice.